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Date: September 13, 2024 at 11:26:46
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
URL: The Memo: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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The Memo: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again
BY NIALL STANAGE - 09/13/24 5:30 AM ET
Democrats who are in high spirits over Vice President Harris’s debate
performance and buoyed by her rise in the polls have one doubt that nags
at them above all others.
It’s the knowledge that former President Trump has consistently
outperformed his poll numbers in the past — and the fear that he might do
so again.
Given that many polls already have the battleground states balanced on a
knife-edge, the idea of history repeating itself is a Democratic nightmare.
“I think we still have to worry about a Trump surge,” Celinda Lake, one of
two leading pollsters for President Biden’s 2020 campaign, told this
column via email.
One of the central difficulties for any pollster is how to model turnout. In
most cases, that involves an educated guess about how many people from
which demographics will actually cast ballots.
That’s one reason for Lake’s concern.
“Trump is winning men who have not voted” previously, she stated. “Most
pollsters are adjusting. Our firm looks at two turnout estimates now. One
the average and one looking at [a] Trump surge.”
Harris doesn’t have any leeway if such a surge took place.
In the polling averages maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ
(DDHQ), Harris leads nationally by 3.4 points, but the races are much
closer in most of the key states.
In the three ‘blue wall’ states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin —
all of which are vital to Harris’s hopes — she leads by 0.4 points, 0.8
points and 3.0 points respectively.
DDHQ currently gives Harris a 54 percent chance of prevailing in
November.
The organization’s director of data science, Scott Tranter, warned
Democrats against taking any confidence from that number.
In probability terms, a 54 percent chance of winning basically means that
in an imaginary scenario where the election could be run 20 times, Harris
would win 11 times and Trump 9 times.
“If you feel comfortable with a 54 percent chance, then you probably have
to understand probabilities a little better,” Tranter said. “This is a coin flip.
Nobody should be surprised if Kamala Harris wins or if Donald Trump
wins, any more than you would be surprised if you flipped a coin and it
came up tails.”
As the public focuses on the tightness of this year’s race, the specific
ways in which the polls went awry in Trump’s previous two White House
runs bears emphasizing.
Back in 2016, national polls measuring Trump’s performance against
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton were not off by a massive amount.
The final RealClearPolitics (RCP) average before Election Day had Clinton
besting Trump by 3.2 points. In the actual results, she beat him by 2.1
points in the popular vote — while, of course, losing the Electoral College.
The result was such a shock partly because the polls missed so badly in
the decisive states. Across the blue wall, pollsters measured Clinton’s
showing with startling accuracy but markedly underestimated Trump’s
vote share.
In the worst case of all, Wisconsin, the final RCP average predicted
Clinton’s vote share within 0.3 percentage points of what she actually
received.
But it underestimated Trump’s by almost 7 points. He edged Clinton out
by winning 47.2 percent of the vote, way ahead of the 40.3 percent the
final RCP average had projected.
In the wake of the 2016 shocker, there were various explanations offered
about why the polls might have underestimated Trump’s support.
Suggestions included that the pollsters’ models of turnout had been off,
underestimating rural and exurban turnout for Trump; that Trump
supporters, perhaps more distrustful than their Democratic counterparts
of polls and the media, were more reluctant to respond to surveys; or that
some respondents had simply lied, ultimately backing Trump in the
privacy of the voting booth having declined to tell a pollster they were
going to do so.
The 2016 outcome sparked a lot of introspection on the part of pollsters,
but the industry’s overall performance in the 2020 race wasn’t much
better.
In fact, in 2020 the national polls were further off than in 2016. The final
RCP average predicted a 7-point victory for Biden, though he prevailed in
the real popular vote by 4.5 points.
Another factor remained the same: Pollsters were excellent at estimating
the Democratic nominee’s level of support but poor at predicting Trump’s.
The final RCP average came within one-fifth of a percentage point of
Biden’s actual vote. But it underestimated Trump’s by almost 3 points.
In the three blue wall states, Wisconsin once again produced the biggest
miss, with the final RCP average underestimating Trump’s actual vote
share by almost 5 points.
Misfires on that scale put the current polls in this year’s race into stark
perspective. As of Thursday evening, The Hill/DDHQ polling averages of
seven battleground states showed only one in which either Trump or
Harris was leading by more than a single percentage point.
The state in question, where Harris is up 3 points, was Wisconsin.
There have not been enough polls since Tuesday’s debate to get a firm
picture of whether the clash changed the race in any fundamental way.
Harris was widely seen as the victor and, on Thursday, Trump asserted in
a social media post that there would be no more debates.
Also Thursday, Trump pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis issued a
memo — made public by the campaign — that asserted that its own polls
showed a 2-point bump for Trump after the debate, while Harris’s support
had “remained flat.”
However, a new Morning Consult poll, also taken after the debate and
released Thursday, showed Harris with a 5-point national lead — her
largest edge in any poll so far from the organization.
Harris’s campaign continues to insist she is the underdog — though there
is a question mark over whether her aides sincerely believe this or are
using the claim to keep the motivation of her supporters sky-high.
One thing is sure: The race is very close indeed, and Democratic anxieties
are going to remain sharp all the way until the results come in.
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441152 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 13:48:27
From: shadow, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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…and there it is, my morning bellylaugh…come a bit late today…
No matter. It was worth it. Thanks, old timer. ;)
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441147 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 11:33:11
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Take it to Twitter.. |
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Maybe they’ll tell you you’re great there. Here you’re just a tired old joke.
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441146 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 11:27:42
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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441161 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 16:06:57
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: lol |
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nobody's buying the idea that you're 'moving on' redhart.
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441148 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 11:41:39
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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so less that 60 seconds after i posted this you are already moving on? lol
hell it’s an article from the hill that agrees with what you’ve been saying
about the polls. guess trolls gotta troll
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441151 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 13:06:56
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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sorry, I see "OT" and "polls" and I move on. Didn't read
it.
Have fun.
If it agrees with me, maybe you've been reading my posts
then lol.
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441153 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 14:17:07
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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so you admittedly didn’t read my post, but saw that it was a post from me
and responded with snarky shit anyway? do we call that stalking or
trolling? probably both since you admittedly did it because of who was
posting and what the topic was
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[441162] [441165] [441180] [441183] [441208] [441213] [441187] [441163] |
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441162 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 16:41:30
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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I saw it was another polling post from the hill from
you.
We call that "saving my time" because I do have a busy
life and pick and choose what I read.
We call that being efficient.
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Responses:
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441165 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 16:52:16
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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no ma’am, when you reflexively respond to me without reading the
content and then respond over and over and over you aren’t saving
anything. let’s at least me honest about what you are doing
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441180 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 22:08:19
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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Hon, the only one dishonest here has been you...and who
are you, anyway? Do you live in the U.S.? Have kids?
Have a job? Or is this your job?
There are lies of omission, too.
But, do carry on.. please..
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441183 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 23:19:06
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
URL: http://earthboppin.net/talkshop/national/messages/440265.html |
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“Hon, the only one dishonest here has been you”
seriously? you were caught just a few weeks ago cutting out the middle of
an article that didn’t agree with what you were trying to say. the most
dishonest example of cherry picking i’ve ever seen. now here you are
claiming you responded to me and keep responding to me, 5 times so for
just to save time and be efficient?? come on red, you are stalking and
trolling me and obviously you enjoy it. my question is why?
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[441208] [441213] [441187] |
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441208 |
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Date: September 14, 2024 at 11:50:37
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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I did cut...it's called an excerpt highlighting what I
was focused on (but leaving the link to the whole
article for others).
Nothing wrong with that.
You're attempting to apply an incorrect motive and spin
it to your agenda, is much more dishonest.
You twist, re-frame, pivot, don't answer
questions...and you're constant persecution complex is
becoming almost funny.
Sorry, I don't think anyone believes you're a poor
little victim here. You could talk to a therapist about
that, though.
But, again...you've driven the thread off topic to
attack me. I feel so special.
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[441213] |
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441213 |
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Date: September 14, 2024 at 12:08:53
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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“ But, again...you've driven the thread off topic to attack me. I feel so
special.”
red i posted this thread and you have responded 6 times and not a single
post was on topic, and now try to claim i’ve driven the thread off topic???
come on!
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441187 |
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Date: September 14, 2024 at 00:06:34
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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441163 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 16:41:59
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: ...we call it EB "think" Ot... ...or adult... |
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441149 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 11:44:56
From: aio, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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Don't you get it? Anything posted by you is bullshit.. you've worn out your
welcome.. it don't matter what you post.. it's all bullshit from OT.
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441150 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 12:46:32
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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in other words no matter what i post you 2 will troll the shit out of me. yes,
i get that. it’s pretty fucking obvious. pathetic but obvious
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 15:18:15
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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As I said.. go to Twitter and blow smoke up Elon's ass.. I am sure he'll love you.
And besides, I imagine you can find like minded folks there to commiserate with.
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 15:47:40
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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do you really feel that threatened being around non likeminded people?
why? it does seem you actively go after any non-likeminded people who
show up here. does it upset you so many people have different opinions
and views? is that why you compulsively troll and attack anyone who
doesn’t share your views?
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 17:43:49
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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I think you’ve burnt this one bro.. time to move on.. nobody here wants
what you’re peddling. Maybe you’ll have better success over on Twit with
akira. I hear she’s saving the world over there. At least I think that’s what
she said..
But for real, OT, why bother if you get the kind of response you get here
when you’d be embraced elsewhere?
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 19:08:31
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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not looking to be embraced. i also don’t need to be an internet bully to
make myself feel good. i am what i am and i’m comfortable with that
when red challenged me to post actual content here again i did so
knowing how several of you would behave. you see i’m not selling a damn
thing, just speaking up about different views that some here seem to want
to pretend don’t exist. long ago before you showed up here there was a
wide variety of views on these boards. that diverse group was a very
interesting group of people who weren’t scared of others having different
views than they had or news that didn’t agree with them
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Responses:
[441174] [441175] [441176] |
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441174 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 19:28:46
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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"long ago before you showed up"
Yeah, right bot man.. I was the first.. the very first poster here.. day one
where were you? It was before there even was a here.. Ry and I had the first
exchange.. ever.. on what is now the geology (earthwatchers) board.. I
watched as folks for JOB found the place, I watched as Ry asked for
suggestions for the domain name.. as he added forums.. and I have been
here ever since.. sometimes I post and others I lurk, but I have been here
since day one.. so whatever you're smoking.. good luck..
But for real.. I am sure, positive, Elon would much rather you give him what
you got than waste it here.. so why aren't you bowing down for him?
But trying to shame me while you're mouth is full of GOP crap? You're joking
right?
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[441175] [441176] |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 19:50:01
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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we’ve had this conversation, how as his buddy you were here in testing
things. but then you weren’t around until you showed up 6 or 7 years ago
and started bullying and attacking people. why aren’t you able to handle
people who have different views? what threatens you so much you feel
compelled to keep attacking me like this? is this obsession something i
should physically be worried about? you have to admit it’s damned
strange the way you obsess over me, should i be concerned? or is it just
an internet tough guy thing?
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Responses:
[441176] |
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441176 |
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Date: September 13, 2024 at 20:33:30
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear Trump will outperform polls again |
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So which do you prefer for dinner OT? Cats of dogs? Do you go for the black
ones, or do you eat whatever you can get your hands on?
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