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Date: September 06, 2024 at 12:46:33
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: florida, texas in play... |
URL: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4865482-trump-harris-florida-texas-poll/ |
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if kamala can win florida or texas she doesn't have to worry about the swing states...
New poll shows Florida, Texas within margin of error in Harris-Trump race
by Jared Gans - 09/06/24 9:27 AM ET
Florida and Texas are within the margin of error in the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris, according to a poll released Friday.
The survey from Emerson College Polling/The Hill showed Trump leading Harris in Florida by 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent, and in Texas by 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent.
The results are a bit closer than what some other polling has found on the races but not completely out of sync with recent polls that have shown a tighter race in those states.
Not much independent polling from major institutions has been done on Texas and Florida since Harris became the Democratic nominee.
Winning either Florida, which Democrats had carried in 2008 and 2012 before the state voted for Trump twice in a row, or Texas, which Democrats have held increasing hopes about flipping blue in recent years, would be an uphill battle for Harris.
The forecast model from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ gives Trump an 83 percent chance of winning Texas and a 75 percent chance of winning Florida. But Florida is only rated as “lean Republican,” and some polls for both states have had Trump leading by single digits.
A Florida Atlantic University poll from last month had Trump’s lead in the Sunshine State at just 3 points, and a poll from two Texas universities had Trump leading in the Lone Star State by 5 points.
The Emerson poll showed Harris just behind Trump in favorability rating for the states. His net favorability rating was positive 2 points in both, while the vice president’s in both was negative 2 points.
The poll also found a significant gender gap, with Trump leading among Texas men by 18 points, up from 17 points in 2020, and among Florida men by 12 points, up from 9 points four years prior. Harris leads among Texas women by 8 points, up from 3 points, and among Florida women by 2 points.
Flipping either Texas or Florida may be a stretch but would make Democrats’ path to 270 electoral votes easier and Republicans’ path considerably harder.
Democrats seeking to try to hold on to the Senate have also talked about the two states’ Republican incumbent senators as possible opportunities to expand the map.
Emerson found the Florida Senate race between Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) to be a dead heat, with Scott ahead by 1 point.
The poll was conducted Sept. 3-5 among 815 likely voters in Florida and 845 likely voters in Texas. The margin of error for Florida was 3.4 percentage points, and the margin for Texas was 3.3 percentage points.
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Date: September 06, 2024 at 12:48:10
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: florida, texas in play... |
URL: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4864690-florida-senate-race-poll-rick-scott/ |
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and...cruz in texas also in a tight race...
Florida Senate race is dead heat: Poll
by Julia Manchester - 09/06/24 6:00 AM ET
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) are locked in a dead heat in Florida’s Senate race, according to polling released Friday by The Hill and Emerson College Polling.
Scott leads Mucarsel-Powell 46 percent to 45 percent among likely Florida voters, well within the survey’s plus or minus 3.4 point margin of error. Nine percent of voters said they are undecided.
Among independent voters, 47 percent said they back Mucarsel-Powell and 34 percent broke for Scott, while 19 percent said they are undecided. Mucarsel-Powell leads Scott by 5 points among women voters, and Scott led Mucarsel-Powell by 8 points among men.
The poll also found Mucarsel-Powell polling ahead of Scott with the state’s Hispanic vote by 6 points, while Scott led Mucarsel-Powell by 19 points among white voters.
The Hill/Emerson College Polling survey shows the tightest race yet between the two Floridians.
A Florida Atlantic University poll released last month found Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell 47 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, while a University of North Florida poll also released last month showed the same margin. Prior to the poll’s release, The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ average showed Scott leading by 4.3 points.
Republicans have made major inroads in Florida over the past decade, making it a firmly red state. The party saw victories across the state in 2022, an election cycle when Republicans elsewhere in the country underperformed.
The Hill/Emerson College Polling survey was conducted Sept. 3-5 among 815 likely Florida voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 points.
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