Harris trails Biden, Clinton vs. Trump at this stage of race
BY AMIE PARNES 09/05/24 06:00 AM ET
Vice President Harris, for all her momentum since becoming the
Democratic presidential nominee, is behind where President Biden and
Hillary Clinton stood at this point in their own battles against former
President Trump during the 2020 and 2016 presidential races.
Harris is outpacing Trump in national polls kept by the FiveThirtyEight
political website with 47 percent support to 44 percent with 62 days to go
before the election.
But Biden had a bigger lead by that measurement in 2020. He was ahead
of then-President Trump by 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent, at this
point in the 2020 race, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Clinton, running in 2016 at the end of former President Obama’s second
term in office, was ahead of Trump with 42 percent support to 38 percent,
according to the same data, at this stage of that race.
The RealClearPolitics polling average shows a similar trend to the one
from FiveThirtyEight.
Its polling average has Harris ahead of Trump nationally by 2 points.
But at this point in 2020, Biden was ahead of Trump by 7 points — 49
percent support to 42 percent. In 2016, the RealClearPolitics national
average of polls also showed Clinton ahead of Trump with 46 percent
support to his 42 percent.
Harris is also trailing among some key demographics in comparison to
where Biden stood when he defeated Trump in 2020.
While Harris has shown polling gains among Black voters since becoming
the Democratic standard-bearer, a Suffolk University poll released
Tuesday found her winning a big margin, but a smaller one than those
enjoyed by Biden and Clinton.
The poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters, found Harris winning 76
percent of the Black vote compared to 12 percent for Trump. But a similar
survey conducted by Suffolk in early September 2020 showed Biden with
82 percent of support from Black voters compared to 4 percent for
Trump. During the same time period in 2016, Suffolk revealed that Clinton
had an 88-point lead among Black voters over Trump, 92 percent to 4
percent.
Similarly, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released this week showed Harris with a 13-
point lead over Trump with Hispanic voters. In 2020, a Quinnipiac
University poll taken after both the Democratic and Republican
conventions showed Biden leading Trump with 56 percent support to 36
percent among Hispanic voters. A Quinnipiac poll from 2016 reported that
those voters backed Clinton 50-33 percent.
Scott Tranter, the director of data science at Decision Desk HQ, said the
polling highlights that “it’s not in the bag” for Harris.
“She’s had a great six weeks,” Tranter said of Harris. “I’d rather be her
than him but I’m not betting the house.”
To be sure, Harris has seen her number bounce up with some groups, and
she is in a much better position than President Biden was before he
dropped out of the race and endorsed his vice president.
An ABC/Ipsos survey released this week, for example, showed that Harris
is leading Trump with 54 percent support to 41 percent among women,
the same percentage Clinton received according to exit polls in 2016.
Before the Democratic Party gathered in Chicago last month, Harris was
up by 6 points with women.
Exit polls in 2020 showed that women supported Biden over Trump 57
percent to 42 percent.
Biden was trailing Trump in the seven swing states likely to determine the
election’s winner. Since entering the race, Harris has closed those gaps,
making Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina competitive. Some
polls have had her ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Polling averages for those three states kept by Decision Desk HQ and The
Hill show Harris with the lead, though it is close. In Pennsylvania, she
leads by only seven-tenths of a percentage point in the polling average.
While Harris didn’t see a bounce coming out of the Democratic National
Convention, the increasing support from women shown in polls has
energized some in the party.
“Harris seems to still be on an upward trajectory, and she’s already ahead
nationally and in most battlegrounds,” said Democratic strategist Christy
Setzer. “I’ll take it!”
“There’s plenty of time to get to and surpass Biden’s 2020 performance,”
she added.
Democratic strategist Basil Smikle, who served as the executive director
of the New York State Democratic Party, said Harris still has time to better
her standing.
“She can make up some of this ground,” Smikle said, adding that both
Clinton and Biden were “known quantities” to the electorate. “It’s a
difficult but not insurmountable challenge.”
He said one of the most striking metrics — to counter the comparison of
Harris’s standing with that of her Democratic predecessors — has been
the sheer volume of fundraising, much of which has come from a
significant population of first-time donors who are looking to be part of a
movement.
“There’s a willingness not only to get to know her but to also be a part of
something that is bigger than her,” he said.
Still, Smikle said the campaign has done a good job at managing
expectations, with two months to go until Election Day.
“It’s important to maintain almost an underdog status” in the remaining
weeks of the campaign, he said.
Democratic strategist and pollster Fernand Amandi said Harris “has
performed so flawlessly” in recent weeks. Still, he called the polling
comparisons “troubling.”
“The fact that Trump has been in self-sabotage, worst-candidate-ever
mode and the polls still are as close as they are, is remarkable,” Amandi
said. “If any Democrat says they’re not concerned between now and Nov.
5th, they’re lying.”
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Forecasting pioneer predicts Harris will win election
by Lauren Sforza - 09/05/24 10:11 AM ET
A notable elections forecaster predicted Vice President Harris will win November’s election, according to his model of 13 keys.
Allan Lichtman, a historian who has successfully predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, revealed in a New York Times video that he believes that Harris will clinch a victory over former President Trump. His election model is based on 13 true-or-false questions that ignore polls and pollsters.
“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States — at least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote,” he said at the end of the video.
The 13 keys include whether:
The White House party gained seats in the House in midterm elections
The incumbent president is running
The White House party avoided a primary contest
A third-party candidate is running
The short-term economy is strong
Growth of long-term economy has been as strong as last two terms
The White House has enacted major national policy changes
There is no social unrest
There is no scandal in the White House
The incumbent party candidate has charisma
The challenger is uncharismatic
The White House had foreign policy success
The White House had foreign policy failure
“The keys absolutely will work. They are the constant northern star of political prediction,” Lichtman said.
The video’s narrator explained that if a key was false, that meant it was in favor of Trump.
He found that eight of the keys are true and in favor of Harris, while three are false and favor Trump.
The keys that benefit Trump involve these false statements:
The White House party gained House seats in the 2022 midterm elections. “The Democrats did better than expected in 2022 but they still lost House seats. So the key is false,” he said.
The sitting president is running for reelection. “Biden withdrew from the race, costing the Democrats this key, it is false,” Lichtman said.
And, third, the incumbent party’s candidate is charismatic. “This is a very high threshold key. You have to be a once in a generational, broadly inspirational candidate. Harris has not met that standard. So this key is false.”
Lichtman said the remaining two keys, including a foreign policy failure or a foreign policy success, could still flip in Trump’s favor before the election.
“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip. The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House,” he said in the video.
While he predicted Harris would win the race, he previously said Democrats’ only chance of winning was if Biden stayed in the race. He said at the time it was “foolhardy nonsense” to suggest the Democrats would replace Biden at the top of the ticket.
Many polls show a close race between Harris and Trump. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average shows Harris with a 3.6 percentage point lead over the former president, based on an aggregate of 156 polls.
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