Israelis broadly favor Trump over Harris on security and in vote preference: Poll
Fifty-eight percent surveyed said Trump would be better for Israel's security.
ByGary Langer
October 4, 2024, 6:47 AM
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Israelis broadly pick former President Donald Trump over Vice President
Kamala Harris as better for Israel's security and in turn favor Trump for the U.S.
presidency, albeit with sharp political divisions, a national survey by Langer
Research Associates and PORI (Public Opinion Research Israel) finds.
Fifty-eight percent of Israelis in the survey, conducted in September, said
Trump would be better for Israel's security, vs. 20% for Harris. If they had a vote
in the U.S. election, Israelis said they'd pick Trump over Harris by a similar
54%-24%, with the rest taking a pass.
Israelis' Views of U.S. Presidential Candidates.
Langer Reasearch/PORI poll
To a large degree, these attitudes follow the fault lines in Israeli politics. Among
people who would support parties in the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu if an election in Israel were today, 88% picked Trump as
better for Israel's security and 84% preferred him for the U.S. presidency --
results that may reflect tensions between Netanyahu's government and the
Biden administration.
Supporters of Israeli opposition parties, by contrast, split closely, 39%-37%,
Harris-Trump, in preference for the presidency. That said, even opposition party
supporters picked Trump over Harris as better for Israel's security, albeit by a
comparatively close 41%-32%.
Israeli flag is seen in the Old City in Jerusalem, Israel, Dec. 29, 2022.
Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images
While much attention now is on the conflict with Hezbollah and Iran, another
question finds majority Israeli rejection of the suggestion that Israel is doing too
little to avoid civilian casualties in the war in Gaza. To the contrary, "considering
the challenges of conducting battles in populated areas," 54% said Israel is
doing too much to avoid such casualties. Twenty-eight percent said it's doing
the right amount; 14%, too little.
MORE: What are Israel's goals in its south Lebanon incursion?
The three questions in this study were included in a random-sample, face-to-
face survey of 1,012 Israelis, with fieldwork by PORI, Sept. 8-22, before the bulk
of Israel's campaign against Hezbollah and Iran's subsequent missile attack
this week. (Eighty-two percent of interviews were completed before Sept. 17,
when thousands of Hezbollah pagers exploded.)
The U.S. election
PHOTO: Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks
at a campaign event, Aug. 18, 2024, in Rochester, left, and Republican
presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a
campaign event, Aug. 19, 2024, in York.
In this combination of photos taken in Pennsylvania, Democratic presidential
nominee Vice President K...Show more
AP
In addition to the political gaps in attitudes toward the U.S. presidential
candidates, ethnic and religious differences are sharp. Sixty-four percent of
Jews picked Trump over Harris as better for Israel's security, while Arabs, who
account for about 17% of Israel's adult citizen population, divided essentially
evenly, 27%-24%; 36% saw no difference between the two. In vote preference,
Jews went for Trump by 58%-23%, while Arabs split 28%-26%; the rest said
they wouldn't participate or didn't express a preference.
Gaps also are present within the Jewish population. The shares picking Trump
as better on security ranged from 53% of secular Jews to 88% of Orthodox
Jews. Patterns are similar in preference for the presidency: Secular Jews
favored Trump by 11 points, 46%-35%, widening to 65%-17% among
traditional Jews and 69%-3% among ultra-Orthodox Jews, and peaking for
Trump at 85%-4% among Orthodox Jews.
Trump vs. Harris in Israeli Attitudes.
Langer Reasearch/PORI poll
U.S. election preferences among Israeli Jews overall are sharply different from
those of Jews in the United States. In ABC News/Ipsos polling, combining late
August and mid-September surveys for an adequate sample size, U.S. Jews
favored Harris over Trump by 63%-33%.
Another difference is by age. In the United States, Harris does best with
younger adults. In Israel, it's Trump who does best in this group, with 65% of
those younger than 35 picking Trump on security and 58% supporting him for
president. These drop to 52% and 48% for Trump, respectively, among Israelis
age 65 and older.
Trump also prevails among Israelis in strength of sentiment. Thirty percent
overall said they'd "surely" support Trump for president, vs. 10% who said this
about Harris; and 37% said Trump would be "much" better for Israel's security,
compared with 12% for Harris.
MORE: Netanyahu says Israel must defeat Hezbollah in UN speech amid calls
for cease-fire
Civilian casualties in Gaza
There also are ethnic, religious and political gaps in views of efforts to avoid
civilian casualties in Gaza, given the challenges of urban combat. Strikingly,
while just 7% of Jews said Israel is doing too little to avoid such casualties, that
rises to 50% of Israeli Arabs.
Among Jews, about eight in 10 of those who are Orthodox or ultra-Orthodox
said Israel is doing too much to avoid civilian casualties. This falls to 63% of
traditional Jews and 47% of secular Jews.
Politically, among those who favor coalition parties, 76% said Israel is doing too
much to avoid civilian casualties. This declines to 41% of opposition party
supporters, with 21% saying Israel is doing too little; 34%, about the right
amount.
Israel's efforts to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza.
Langer Reasearch/PORI poll
About this survey
This survey is a joint project of Langer Research Associates, a New York-based
firm that specializes in the design, management and analysis of public opinion
research domestically and internationally; and PORI (Public Opinion Research
Israel), a leading Israeli public opinion research firm founded in 1966. The
study's questions were asked as a part of PORI's September face-to-face
omnibus survey.
MORE: Harris seen as debate winner while maintaining slight lead over Trump:
POLL
The survey was conducted in Hebrew and Arabic among 1,012 respondents
across Israel via area probability sampling. One hundred primary sampling units
were randomly selected, with households selected via random walk and
respondents selected via the last-birthday method. Up to three revisits were
made at each selected household. In quality control, 20% of each interviewer's
work was re-checked randomly by phone.
Data were weighted for probability of selection and calibrated to census data
for sex by age and region. Results have a margin of sampling error of plus or
minus 3 points for the full sample, including a design effect due to weighting of
1.05. As in any survey, error margins are larger for subgroups. Sampling error is
not the only source of differences in polls.
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