Biden administration reinstates sanctions on Venezuelan oil
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4600555-biden-
administration-reinstates-sanctions-on-venezuelan-oil/
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To Halt the Venezuelan Migration Crisis, Stop Banning Venezuelan Oil
The Biden administration’s policies on sanctions and asylum-seekers are
making the country's humanitarian situation worse.
By Francisco Rodríguez, the Rice family professor of the practice of
international and public affairs at the University of Denver’s Korbel School of
International Studies.
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Over the past two weeks, the Biden administration has deported thousands
of Venezuelans to Mexico under the convoluted argument that they pose a
danger of introducing COVID-19 into the United States. To deal with an
upsurge in immigration, the White House appealed to a Trump-era decision
to deport immigrants at the border under Title 42 of the U.S. Code—a
provision that allows for turning back asylum-seekers at the border if they
risk spreading a communicable disease. Those who reached the border in
the hope that they could apply for asylum are now being sent to a country
with which most of them have few if any links.
Even the White House admits that there is no public health justification for
the measure. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention called for the
termination of Title 42 deportations in April, and the measure is in place only
because Republican governors convinced a Trump-appointed federal judge
to block a lifting of the measure in May. Despite claiming to oppose the
ruling, the Biden administration took advantage of it when it decided to
expand Title 42 deportations to Venezuelans on Oct. 12.
This article appears in the Winter 2023 print issue of Foreign Policy
magazine. Explore the issue.
This abrupt change in policy has left tens of thousands of asylum-seekers
stranded in Mexico and Central America in diplomatic limbo. It also serves as
an example of the profound contradictions inherent in U.S. policy toward
Venezuela. For years, the U.S. government pursued a “maximum pressure”
strategy of imposing harsh oil and financial sanctions, with the idea that they
would help oust President Nicolás Maduro from power. The sanctions failed
to bring about regime change; instead, they helped cripple the country’s
economy and fuel one of the largest peacetime migration exoduses in recent
history. Now, the United States is shutting its door in the face of thousands of
Venezuelans who have risked their lives to escape the economic collapse
that it played a hand in creating.
Adding insult to injury, the Biden administration unveiled a process to grant
legal entry to 24,000 “qualifying Venezuelans” that few if any of the most
vulnerable asylum-seekers will have access to. Not only is the number
minuscule, amounting to less than the number of Venezuelans encountered
by U.S. Border Patrol guards in a single month and only 0.3 percent of the
number of Venezuelans who have left their country in recent years, but the
policy is explicitly designed to exclude those who need it the most while
privileging those who already have the means and resources to come to the
United States.
To be eligible for the new program, Venezuelans must show that they have a
person in the United States willing to financially support them; they must also
have a valid passport and demonstrate that they have not illegally entered
Mexico or Panama. Few of the Venezuelans who risked their lives crossing
the dangerous tropical forest of Panama’s Darién province to escape one of
the world’s worst hunger crises will have a chance at satisfying these
requirements. A Venezuelan passport costs around 10 times the country’s
monthly minimum wage; according to a recent study, fewer than 1 percent of
migrants leaving Venezuela have one.
Venezuela’s massive migration exodus is a direct consequence of the
country’s economic collapse. This collapse began when oil prices fell in 2014,
and it deepened as the country’s oil production fell precipitously after 2017
as the United States began imposing financial and economic sanctions.
Dysfunctional macroeconomic policies as well as gross mismanagement of
an oil boom by Maduro and his late predecessor, President Hugo Chávez,
played their part in leaving the economy unprepared to deal with lower oil
revenues. U.S. sanctions added to the mix by closing off the country’s main
export from access to U.S. and European markets and making it nearly
impossible to obtain the needed intermediate and capital goods for its oil
industry to function adequately.
Stemming Venezuela’s exodus will require policies to address the root
causes of a crisis that has driven more than 20 percent of the country’s
population to leave. This implies reintegrating Venezuela into the global
economy and allowing it to generate the hard-currency earnings necessary
to fuel its economy. Venezuela will also need massive humanitarian
assistance to address its hunger and health emergencies. Its humanitarian
crisis remains one of the most underfunded in modern history, with total
international assistance since the start of the crisis reaching only $1 billion, or
a meager $35 per capita. By comparison, donors have directed $24 billion, or
nearly $1,300 per capita, to Syria, a country that has seen a smaller collapse
in per capita income than Venezuela.
The potential relaunching of talks between Venezuela’s government and a
group of opposition parties in Mexico City could serve as a starting point for
the mobilization of resources to address the country’s crisis. According to
recent news reports, the talks will include a potential agreement to use $3
billion in frozen Venezuelan funds to provide humanitarian aid under United
Nations management. Despite the inexplicable delay in the adoption of the
idea—proposals for such a program have been around for more than three
years and were either ignored or actively opposed by the Trump and Biden
administrations—this would be an important first step in allowing Venezuela
to use its own funds to attend to the needs of its most vulnerable groups.
Yet even a humanitarian aid program of $3 billion over several years will be a
drop in the bucket compared with what Venezuela requires—or with what the
country could obtain from reentering global oil markets. Venezuela would
need an additional $8 billion a year just to recover its 2013 level of food and
medicine imports—and that’s without even counting the funds needed to pay
for basic public services and repair vital infrastructure. The only way in which
Venezuela can sustainably recover its economy and regain the living
standards it had until recently is by regaining access to global oil markets.
Even the most conservative estimates indicate that a complete lifting of
economic sanctions could lead to an increase in production of around
700,000 barrels per day, generating around $23 billion per year at current
prices—enough to more than triple the country’s current level of imports.
Some will claim that sanctions should not be eased unless Maduro allows
free and fair elections to be held. This is the position taken recently by
Republican Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, who sent a letter to Biden
warning that any loosening of sanctions would “give unwarranted and
dangerous legitimacy to the Nicolas Maduro regime.” Rubio has also vowed
to introduce legislation requiring the Senate to consent to any lifting of
sanctions on Venezuela, an action that could bring any progress in
negotiations to a standstill if Republicans take control of Congress after the
Nov. 8 midterm elections.
READ MORE
A migrant family from Venezuela illegally crosses the Rio Grande river.
A migrant family from Venezuela illegally crosses the Rio Grande river.
Venezuela’s Forgotten Refugee Crisis Rivals Ukraine’s
International funding for refugees falls short despite a new spike in
Venezuelans fleeing their country.
REPORT | ROBBIE GRAMER
Maduro and Putin on a placard in Caracas
Maduro and Putin on a placard in Caracas
U.S.-Venezuelan Oil Deal Should Not Forget Democracy
A surprise trip to Caracas seems to have secured some energy relief—but
needs to yield democratic benefits, too.
ARGUMENT | DAVID SMILDE
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro appears after a meeting with Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the Miraflores presidential palace in
Caracas on Feb. 20.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro appears after a meeting with Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the Miraflores presidential palace in
Caracas on Feb. 20.
U.S. Policy on Venezuela Is Converging
Both Democrats and Republicans recognize the need for a more realist
approach to Maduro’s government.
ANALYSIS | GEOFF RAMSEY, CALEB MCCARRY
There is quite a perverse logic to this argument, as it assumes that
vulnerable Venezuelans should be made to pay the cost of Maduro’s
authoritarianism. In fact, the evidence shows that sanctions are rarely
effective at generating regime change. More often than not, they end up
having the opposite effect, weakening civil society while giving authoritarian
leaders an excuse to increase repression and tighten their grip on power.
Five years after the United States began imposing economic sanctions on
Venezuela, Maduro is more firmly ensconced in power, the opposition is
more divided, and ordinary Venezuelans are much worse off than at any time
in their country’s modern history.
Washington should begin by putting an end to economic sanctions that
exacerbate the country’s economic crisis and make the lives of Venezuelans
more difficult.
It is time for the U.S. government to overhaul its strategy toward Venezuela. It
should begin by putting an end to economic sanctions that exacerbate the
country’s economic crisis and make the lives of Venezuelans more difficult.
No other country has imposed economic sanctions on the Maduro regime,
with Europe explicitly stating that it will not support measures that worsen
the country’s crisis. It is shameful for the United States to be the only
exception to this global consensus.
The international community should support an inclusive negotiation process
that reflects the true plurality of Venezuelan society and that’s aimed at
addressing the country’s most urgent problems, including its widespread
hunger and poverty. Full multilateral support—including access to more than
$13 billion immediately available from the International Monetary Fund—
should be offered to aid a plan for economic reconstruction that emerges
from this national dialogue.
The United States must redesign its migration strategy by respecting the
right to seek asylum by all those who are fleeing political persecution and
human rights violations. Given current labor market shortages, the U.S.
economy could benefit from higher levels of immigration by Venezuelans,
who have significantly contributed to boosting productivity in many other
host countries. Any program to expand legal pathways should not unfairly
penalize disadvantaged and vulnerable groups.
These policy changes will not necessarily solve all of Venezuela’s problems.
The country’s political crisis is rooted in its deep polarization and inequality
as well as the predatory conduct of its political elites. Any sustainable
solution to it will likely emerge out of a gradual negotiated political transition
with multiple domestic stakeholders in which international actors play a
limited role. What the international community can and should do is promote
initiatives that can help shield Venezuelans from the collateral damage of the
country’s toxic political conflict. Shutting the door on Venezuelan migrants is
not the way to do that.
This article appears in the Winter 2023 print issue of Foreign Policy
magazine. Subscribe now to support our journalism.
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