4.4 - local magnitude (Ml) Time Tuesday, August 13, 2024 at 8:06:35 PM (PDT) Wednesday, August 14, 2024 at 3:06:35 (UTC) Distance from Pahrump, NV - 54 km (33 miles) NNE (28 degrees) Las Vegas, NV - 67 km (41 miles) NW (318 degrees) Summerlin South, NV - 67 km (42 miles) NNW (332 degrees) North Las Vegas, NV - 69 km (43 miles) NW (311 degrees) Spring Valley, NV - 72 km (45 miles) NW (324 degrees)
Follow your own instinct as each of us must (regardless of outside sources imo even if USGS did warn would you trust them? it does not come across as if you would..so theres that).
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98402
Date: August 14, 2024 at 09:06:01 From: eaamon, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: 3.2M Salton Sea...& Swarm at Borrego Springs...Re: 4.4 Nevada
that's for sure. like they/USGS got sued by the real estate brokers when they warned of a imminent volcanic eruption at Long Valley after the valley floor rose 3 meters just after Mt. St Helens blewup....
is it possible that the 4.4 is a distant end of the Garfield fault?
Date: August 14, 2024 at 09:52:26 From: Redhart, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: 3.2M Salton Sea...& Swarm at Borrego Springs...Re: 4.4 Nevada
That was in 1980, if I remember correctly. Geophysics has come a long way since then.
USGS was going to warn, but because mammoth was a tourist/ski town, it upset the chamber (see Dante's peak). But, it's good to note that it did not erupt, in the long run. It may one day.
It did convince the town to build a new road. At the time, there was only one road in and out of town and the magma intrusion was rising right beneath it. (again, they used a lot of this material in Dante's peak movie..where the volcano DID erupt).
I also remember in 1989, the USGS put out a rare warning in August of that year. It was to last for 2 weeks and was after a 5 mag quake very near the San Andreas.
When the quake did not happen in 2 weeks, the USGS was mocked.
Then the quake hit in October..October 17th, to be exact (Loma Prieta quake).
Another good example is Parkfield, which seemed to have a 6pt quake every 22 yrs like clockwork...until the USGS set up all kinds of labs and experiments there to catch the next one.....and it didn't happen. Again, they had to go back to the drawing board.
There is no secret society of those who "know" when the next big quake is going to happen. There are probabilities, but if someone can land a date and time and which fault is the next, please advise. Do it three times (criteria for a working, tested theory) and you'll probably get a medal lol.
The fact is, the science has advanced a great deal. That being said, they are still a long way from reliably predicting large, damaging earthquakes.
There are consequences to issuing those kinds of warnings, especially if the warned against earth quake doesn't happen. The USGS can lose credibility. The warning can affect business and property values. Crying wolf too many times can cause the public to poopoo the next warning.
They have to be careful. Causing panic is not good, and causing the public not to take you serious...or doing harm, is also not good.
If they were really sure, and suddenly had a working, tested model and could do that, I have no doubt it would be put into action. These are scientists who deal with facts and data.
I look forward to the day when making those kind of accurate predictions are happen. We're not there yet, and no one's hiding anything that I have seen.
And, are you talking about the Garlock fault? It's a little far north, and the wrong type of movement. This is the Basin ranges where the earth is stretching. I took a look at that focal mechanism after it happened. It was a "normal" quake, with a slight sideways offset. A normal quake is where a block of earth drops "down" in relation to another block of earth. This is a classic basin range fault type.
The Garlock is a strike-slip (one block of earth sliding past another), and the type of movement you see along it is different. So, it would be very unlikely at this point with what we know.
I majored in Geology in college, but left before actually achieving my degree (due to a family health emergency..gpa was 3.85 when I left) . I've studied on my own all my life as geology has always fascinated me. My life took other turns, but it's always been a side- hobby. I have all kinds of strange geology and seismology books and maps in corners of my house (and a fairly good size rock collection). I've even dealt a bit with the USGS in my travels and studies. Full disclosure: I'm not a professional seismologist or geologist, but I probably know more than the basic layman on this topic..enough to be real annoying on the internet lol. I will, of course, always defer to professional opinions and look forward to their feedback. But just to clarify my background and bonafides (and limits of those bonafides).
I found this article informative (see link)......if it is accurate. He/she says lots of micro's and even 4M's, etc, do not mean a big one is coming, nor do they mitigate a big one if a big one is coming. (Paraphrasing)
So I guess there is no such thing as a fore-shock, or the ONLY way to know we had a fore-shock is AFTER we have had a big one. "Hindsight is like concrete", USGS can safely say, "Yes, that must have been a fore-shock before the big one, after everything is over with."
Kind of like really lousy weatherman, who never predict anything, they only go one air AFTERWARDS, to say: "Yes, that was a really big hurricane, after the fact sorry we didn't predict it." USGS: "Yes, we had an earthquake.....and there is a 1 in 20 chance of another quake afterward." Of course, this is after everyone already knows we had an earthquake.
Yes, the San Andreas is over due to erupt, it could erupt anytime in the next 200 years.
So nobody knows anything, so we might as well stop monitoring quake activity and just enjoy life.
Although I think Jim Berkland was ahead of the curve on this stuff, accurately predicting the Loma Prieta quake......but he deceased now. So we are back to being the last to know.
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Date: August 14, 2024 at 09:19:31 From: Eve, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: 3.2M Salton Sea...& Swarm at Borrego Springs...Re: 4.4 Nevada
Do you have links with that info? I tried to query it online and so far came up with nothing. I may be using the wrong queries but I tried different ones. I did find the following text on USGS at the link provided:
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