Staggering rainfall totals could bring life-threatening flooding to Southern California By Amy GraffFeb 2, 2024
An atmospheric river is expected to drench California from Saturday to Wednesday, with the heaviest rain likely Sunday into Monday. The focus of this moisture-packed system will likely be on Central and Southern California, with rivers of water vapor pulled off the Pacific Ocean aimed directly at the region. (Get the forecast for the SF Bay Area on SFGATE.)
The rainfall totals the National Weather Service is projecting for southern parts of the state are stunning.
“We were saying yesterday in the office that it’s almost unprecedented,” said Mike Wofford, a meteorologist who has worked at the weather service’s LA office for 33 years. “We’ve seen storms like this before. We can remember over the last 10 to 20 years where mountain areas would get 15 inches of rain over a span of a couple days. We’re certainly looking at that as a possibility.”
The agency’s LA office is generally predicting that coastal California stretching between San Luis Obispo County and Los Angeles County will pick up on average “3 to 6 inches in most coastal and valley areas, and 6 to 12 inches in the foothills and mountains,” from Sunday to Monday.
“Saturday isn’t going to be that much, it’s mainly Sunday into Monday,” Wofford said. “I think there’s a pretty good likelihood at this point that values in some areas could be higher than 12 inches. Those higher numbers are up in the mountains where rainfall rates tend to be higher and last longer.”
Wofford said the highest rainfall totals are likely in the mountains of Santa Barbara County and western Ventura County, and he wouldn’t be surprised if these areas pick up 15 inches or more.
“With 15 inches of rain, if that’s what happens over a couple-day span, it could cause a lot of problems,” he said. “That’s a lot of water coming out of the sky and hitting the ground.”
Urban areas are also predicted to get drenched. The weather service is forecasting that San Luis Obispo will pick up 4.41 inches, downtown Santa Barbara 6.48 inches, downtown Los Angeles 5.11 inches, Westlake 5.79 and Long Beach 4.08 inches.
The National Weather Service’s Los Angeles office is warning that “damaging, life threatening flooding” is “increasingly likely.” Wofford said debris flows and landslides are possible in addition to flooding.
Areas south of Los Angeles will also likely see heavy rain. Orange and southwestern San Bernardino counties are predicted to measure 3 to 4.5 inches in coastal areas and 5 to 8 inches in the mountains, Saturday night into Wednesday. In San Diego and western Riverside Counties “rainfall could range from 2 to 3 inches near the coast to 3 to 5 inches in the mountains with one-half to one inch in the lower deserts,” the weather service’s San Diego office said in its forecast.
UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said on social media that Southern California could possibly see flooding similar to what unfolded during a historic January 2005 storm, as previously reported by SFGATE. The storm event brought five days straight of rain and resulted in many deaths, including the loss of 10 lives in La Conchita, a small coastal town in Ventura County where a landslide fell into homes. A fallen tree killed an individual in San Diego, while a pregnant woman died after being swept away by a flooded creek in Highland. The storm caused $100 million in damage, the weather service said.
“No two events are alike, but current indications suggests that folks in/near flood or debris flow prone areas in SoCal should start preparing now,” Swain, who posts forecasts for California on his Weather West blog, wrote.
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