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97427
From: Eve, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Hurricane Otis (Cat. 5) Nears Acapulco off Mexico Pacific Coast
URL: https://www.npr.org/2023/10/24/1208353813/hurricane-otis-mexicos-pacific-coast-acapulco
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https://www.npr.org/2023/10/24/1208353813/hurricane-otis-mexicos-pacific-coast-acapulco Hurricane Otis rapidly strengthens off Mexico's Pacific coast as it nears Acapulco ACAPULCO, Mexico — Residents of Mexico's once glamorous port of Acapulco and surrounding coastal towns braced for the arrival of the "potentially catastrophic" Hurricane Otis, a rapidly intensifying Category 5 hurricane that stirred memories of a 1997 storm that killed dozens of people. "A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline," a National Hurricane Center forecaster said late Tuesday. Hurricane Otis strengthened from a tropical storm to a dangerous Category 5 hurricane in 12 hours Tuesday as it approached Mexico's southern Pacific coast. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Otis had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260 kph) late Tuesday evening and was expected to make landfall early Wednesday near Acapulco. It was centered about 55 miles (90 kilometers) south-southeast of Acapulco and moving north-northwest at 9 mph (15 kph). Acapulco is a city of more than 1 million people at the foot of steep mountains. Luxury homes and slums alike cover the city's hillsides with views of the glistening Pacific. While it drew Hollywood stars in its heyday for its nightlife, sport fishing and cliff diving shows, Acapulco has in more recent years fallen victim to competing organized crime groups that sank the city into violence, driving many international tourists to the Caribbean waters of Cancun and the Riviera Maya or hippie beaches farther down the Pacific coast in Oaxaca. A hurricane warning was in effect from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo. A hurricane watch was is in effect from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado. Otis was forecast to remain a Category 5 hurricane through landfall but rapid weakening is then forecast due to the higher terrain of Mexico. Otis will likely dissipate over southern Mexico on Wednesday night. "This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday, " the weather service said. "There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico." In Acapulco, people hurried home as rain began to pelt the resort and winds picked up, driving tourists from the beach. |
97429
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Hurricane Otis (Cat. 5) Nears Acapulco off Mexico Pacific Coast
URL: https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/turbocharged-otis-caught-forecasters-and-mexico-18448266.php
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Forecasters were caught off guard by Otis’ growth. But warming means more hurricanes like it By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer Updated Oct 26, 2023 10:55 a.m. FILE - A woman walks away with stuff she took from a furniture store after Hurricane Otis ripped through Acapulco, Mexico, Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023. Hurricane Otis turned from mild to monster in record time, and scientists are struggling to figure out how — and why they didn't see it coming.Marco Ugarte/AP Hurricane Otis turned from mild to monster in record time, and scientists are struggling to figure out how — and why they didn't see it coming. Usually reliable computer models and the forecasters who use them didn’t predict Otis’ explosive intensification, creating a nightmare scenario of an unexpectedly strong storm striking at night. At least 27 people are dead and four missing in the destruction along Mexico's Pacific coast, with devastation that extends for miles. All this after Acapulco was told to expect a tropical storm just below hurricane strength. Just 24 hours later, Otis blasted ashore with 165 mph (266 kph) winds, the strongest landfall of any East Pacific hurricane. In just 12 hours, Otis’ strength more than doubled from 70 mph (113 kph) winds to 160 mph (257 kph), also a record, as it neared the coast. And it got even stronger before it struck. Storms typically gain or lose a few miles per hour in 12 hours, though some outliers gain 30 to 50 mph (48 to 80 kph) in a day. What happened with Otis was just plain nuts, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy. But it coincides with a documented trend of hurricanes rapidly intensifying more often in recent decades because of warmer water connected to climate change, scientists said. Five different hurricane experts told The Associated Press they weren’t quite sure what set Otis off and why it wasn’t predicted, especially since meteorologists have been dramatically improving their intensity forecasts in recent years. “The models completely blew it,” said MIT atmospheric sciences professor Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert. Experts point to lack of data on the storm and its surroundings and just not completely understanding what makes a storm act like it's on steroids. And it really matters because in Otis' case, the storm was coming ashore when it muscled up. “It’s one thing to have a Category 5 hurricane make landfall somewhere when you’re expecting it," McNoldy said. "But to have it happen when you’re not expecting anything to happen is truly a nightmare.” For example, McNoldy, who lives in Miami, said a tropical storm forecast would prompt him to “do things like move some lightweight furniture in and take down wind chimes and things like that. That’s about it. You’re not preparing for a Category 5 hurricane.” National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said “that’s a very bad scenario, populated area, rapid intensification very close to landfall, a change in the expectations about the impacts that’s happening on a time scale that doesn’t give people a lot of time to respond.” Brennan said Otis' unforeseen buildup was because “it found a much more favorable environment than we were anticipating." He said one part was warm water, another was that the winds — moving in the right direction and at the right altitude — allowed a somewhat raggedy storm to rapidly develop structure and strengthen. McNoldy said there may be a mystery ingredient that scientists just don't know right now, but water is key. Warm water is fuel for hurricanes. Hot, deep water is like an all-you-can-eat buffet. Globally, the world’s oceans have been setting monthly surface heat records since April. The surface waters off the Mexican coast were warm but “not crazy warm,” said University at Albany atmospheric scientist Kristen Corbosiero. Bennan and McNoldy said those waters were maybe 1 or 2 degrees above normal. Below that, the water was much hotter than usual “and there's just a ton of fuel out there right now,” McNoldy said. Still, the storm didn't linger and feed on that, which would be expected in rapid intensification, Brennan said. The heat content in the deeper ocean worldwide has been smashing records. It's from human-caused climate change, McNoldy and other scientists said, as the oceans act as a sponge to absorb a lot of the excess heat caused by the burning of coal, oil and gas. Otis and two other historically explosive cases of rapid intensification — Patricia in 2015 and Wilma in 2005 — all happened in the same mid- to late-October time frame, when deeper water and ocean heat content is at its highest, McNoldy said. Numerous studies have shown globally that there are more cases of rapid intensification of hurricanes than there used to be. An official definition of rapid intensification is a gain in strength of 35 mph (56 kph) in 24 hours. Six storms in 2020 rapidly intensified, many of them just before smacking land. In 2017, two devastating hurricanes, Harvey and Maria, rapidly intensified. Last month in the Atlantic, Hurricane Lee rapidly intensified from 80 mph (129 kph) to 155 mph (249 kph), but didn't hit anywhere. “We're seeing so many more cases of these just astonishing rapid intensification events,” said former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hurricane and climate scientist Jim Kossin, now with the First Street Foundation. Kossin said that there's evidence that what's happening globally over a longer time frame is due in part to human-caused climate change but it's hard to say that about an individual storm. But, he added, “this is exactly the kind of thing we would expect to find as the climate warms.” MIT's Emanuel said it might be more than just the water's temperature, but its low salinity, too. Water in that area at this time of year is fresher from heavy rains at the surface, and that changes the mix of water temperature, he said. Normally a hurricane mixes the warm water on the surface with cooler water below. But when the surface water is fresher, a storm pulls up even more hot water from below, which feeds the storm more “and before you know it, you're in hot water,” Emanuel said. One key test of that theory is whether Otis leaves warm water in its wake. Usually, hurricanes leave behind cold water. Emanuel hopes satellite images will show it, but it's not certain whether they'll get the right view. Another factor that Brennan and others mention is that perhaps forecasters underestimated Otis' original strength. That would mean it didn't intensify as much as it appears because it was stronger to begin with. “The East Pacific in a lot of ways is a huge data void,” Brennan said. “There's no buoys. There's very few land observations. There's no radars along the west coast of Mexico. So we're really reliant almost entirely on satellite imagery.” And sometimes satellites, looking at a storm from high above, cannot get an accurate picture of what’s going on. Think of it like a jigsaw puzzle and forecasters at times have only 10% of the pieces, Brennan said. Forecasters have far more tools to see what's happening in Atlantic storms, he said. ___ Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment. |
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97428
From: Eve, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Hurricane Otis (Cat. 5) Nears Acapulco off Mexico Pacific Coast
URL: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=18E&product=ir
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satellite imagery video from Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=18E&product=ir |
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