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97277
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Hurricane Lee forecast to intensify into possible Category 5 storm
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Hurricane Lee forecast to intensify into possible Category 5 storm by Miranda Nazzaro - 09/07/23 10:30 AM ET (NOAA via AP) This Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2023, satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Hurricane Lee, right, off in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. (NOAA via AP) Hurricane Lee is forecasted to rapidly intensify and approach Category 5 strength as it churns in the Atlantic Ocean on its path to the northeast Caribbean. The storm’s winds reached up to to 80 mph by Thursday morning and it is predicted to rapidly intensify later in the day, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of 5 a.m. Thursday, the storm was located in the Atlantic Ocean around 965 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, the NHC said. This is a group of islands where the northeast Caribbean Sea meets the Atlantic Ocean that includes the U.S. Virgin Islands in the north and that stretches down from near Cuba to Venezuela. By early Friday, Lee is forecasted to become an “extremely dangerous” major hurricane, according to the NHC, which considers a hurricane “major” when the sustained winds within the storm reach 111 mph or higher, matching a Category 3 or higher storm. “The environment around the cyclone looks ideal for rapid intensification,” the Miami-based NHC said. Winds are expected to to reach 155 mph within the next 48 hours, the NHC said. It considers winds of 157 mph or higher to be a Category 5 storm. Jason Dunion, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Hurricane Field Program, told CNN that Lee “definitely has the potential to be a Category 5 storm.” If it does reach Category 5 status, Lee would become the first Category 5 storm of the Atlantic season. The exact path of the storm remains unclear, and meteorologists said it was too soon to provide details on potential rainfall and wind gusts. While the storm is not yet expected to make landfall, forecasters are predicting potential tropical storm conditions north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend into early next week. Forecasters advised people in these areas to monitor updates to Lee’s forecast. Lee is also expected to generate large ocean swells near the Lesser Antilles — a group of islands in the Caribbean Sea — as well in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Bermuda over the weekend. The Hurricane Center said these swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Tropical-storm force winds are also expected to hit the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Puerto Rico starting Friday. Lee is the 12th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which stretches from June 1 to Nov. 30. Last month, NOAA warned of an “above-normal” level of Atlantic hurricane activities due to certain ocean and atmospheric conditions, including the record-warm sea surface temperatures. The agency forecast between 14 and 21 named storms, six to 11 hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. |
97295
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Hurricane Lee forecast to intensify into possible Category 5 storm
URL: https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/hurricane-lee-is-charting-a-new-course-in-weather-18356428.php
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Hurricane Lee is charting a new course in weather and could signal more monster storms By JEFF MARTIN, Associated PressUpdated Sep 9, 2023 11:14 a.m. This satellite image provided by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration shows Hurricane Lee, right, in the Atlantic Ocean on Friday, Sept. 8, 2023, at 4:50 p.m. EDT. Lee is rewriting old rules of meteorology, leaving experts astonished at how rapidly it grew into a goliath Category 5 hurricane. (NOAA via AP)AP ATLANTA (AP) — Hurricane Lee is rewriting old rules of meteorology, leaving experts astonished at how rapidly it grew into a goliath Category 5 hurricane. Lee — which just as quickly dropped to a still-dangerous Category 3 and held that strength Saturday — could still be a harbinger as ocean temperatures climb, spawning fast-growing major hurricanes that could threaten communities farther north and inland, experts say. “Hurricanes are getting stronger at higher latitudes,” said Marshall Shepherd, director of the University of Georgia’s atmospheric sciences program and a past president of the American Meteorological Society. “If that trend continues, that brings into play places like Washington, D.C., New York and Boston.” HYPERINTENSIFICATION As the oceans warm, they act as jet fuel for hurricanes. "That extra heat comes back to manifest itself at some point, and one of the ways it does is through stronger hurricanes,” Shepherd said. During the overnight hours Thursday, Lee shattered the standard for what meteorologists call rapid intensification — when a hurricane’s sustained winds increase by 35 mph (56 kph) in 24 hours. “This one increased by 80 mph (129 kph),” Shepherd said. “I can’t emphasize this enough. We used to have this metric of 35 mph, and here’s a storm that did twice that amount, and we’re seeing that happen more frequently,” said Shepherd, who describes what happened with Lee as hyperintensification. With super-warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear, “all the stars were aligned for it to intensify rapidly,” said Kerry Emanuel, professor emeritus of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. INLAND THREATS Category 5 status, when sustained winds are at least 157 mph (253 kph), is quite rare. Only about 4.5% of named storms in the Atlantic Ocean have grown to a Category 5 in the past decade, said Brian McNoldy, a scientist and hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. More intense major hurricanes also are threatening communities farther inland, because the monster storms can grow so powerful that they remain dangerous hurricanes for longer distances over land. “I think that’s a story that’s kind of undertold,” Shepherd said. “As these storms are strong coming to landfall, in some cases they’re moving fast enough that they’re still hurricanes well inland.” Hurricane Idalia was the latest example. It came ashore in the Florida Panhandle last month and remained a hurricane as it entered south Georgia, where it slammed into the city of Valdosta more than 70 miles (116 kilometers) from where it made landfall. At least 80 homes in the Valdosta area were destroyed and hundreds of others damaged. In 2018, Hurricane Michael carved a similar path of inland destruction, tearing up cotton crops and pecan trees and leaving widespread damage across south Georgia. MONSTER WAVES Although it’s too early to know how close Lee might come to the U.S. East Coast, New Englanders are keeping a wary eye on the storm. As it creeps closer, it could bring high seas and rip currents up and down the Eastern Seaboard. “What we are going to see from Lee — and we’re very confident — is it’s going to be a major wave producer,” Mike Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, said in a Friday briefing. On Saturday, large swells battered the northeast Caribbean as Lee churned through open waters hundreds of miles off the northern Leeward Islands. “This morning, the highest significant wave height we were analyzing in Lee was between 45 and 50 feet, and the highest waves could even be double that,” Brennan said, speaking of swells far out at sea. “So we could be looking at 80, 90-foot waves associated with Lee." Sep 8, 2023|Updated Sep 9, 2023 11:14 a.m. |
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97306
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Hurricane Lee forecast to intensify into possible Category 5 storm
URL: https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/new-england-braces-for-more-rain-after-hourslong-18363460.php
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New England getting more rain, watching Hurricane Lee's path after flooding, sinkholes By MICHAEL CASEY and KATHY McCORMACK, Associated PressUpdated Sep 13, 2023 8:47 a.m. Vehicles make their way through a flooded Lancaster Street during heavy rain in Leominster, Mass., Monday, Sept. 11, 2023. (Rick Cinclair/Worcester Telegram & Gazette via AP) LEOMINSTER, Mass. (AP) — More heavy rain began falling Wednesday in New England, where residents kept one eye on cleanup and another on the path of Hurricane Lee after downpours dropped nearly 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain in six hours and flooded parts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The rainfall was a “200-year event," said Matthew Belk, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Boston. Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey issued a state of emergency Tuesday night following the “catastrophic flash flooding and property damage” in two counties and other communities. The rain created sinkholes in Leominster, Massachusetts. Cars sank into the ground at an auto dealership. The front yard collapsed at one house, resulting in a 15-foot (4.6-meter) hole that exposed the foundation. Andre Obin said his parents, who have lived in the home for many years, were able to pull out of their driveway shortly before the cave-in. “We're just so lucky that the pavement didn't give out underneath the vehicle,” he told WCVB-TV. Parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts were under a flash flood warning Wednesday morning. In Danbury, Connecticut, where there were heavy downpours, officials said they had to rescue several people from their vehicles after they got stuck in floodwaters. Rain from Hurricane Lee didn’t contribute to the flooding earlier this week. But it could inundate parts of the coastal Northeast during the weekend, forecasters said. Lee is traveling north and could make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada, possibly as a tropical storm, forecasters said. Up to 300 people were evacuated by Tuesday morning in Leominster, about 40 miles (64 kilometers) northwest of Boston, Mayor Dean Mazzarella said. He said the city has not seen such widespread damage since a 1936 hurricane. Most buildings downtown flooded and some collapsed. Rail service also was disrupted. Leominster’s director of emergency management, Arthur Elbthal, said two dams out of 24 in the city sustained damage but held. He said the city is reinforcing them. Belk said a trained spotter near Leominster recorded 9.5 inches (24 centimeters) of rain. The record for rainfall in a single day in Massachusetts was set Aug. 18, 1955, when Tropical Storm Diane dropped just over 18 inches (nearly 46 centimeters) in Westfield, Belk said. Healey said she's keeping a close eye on the forecast and how Hurricane Lee may affect the state as she toured flood damage in North Attleborough, about 55 miles (89 kilometers) south of Leominster. “It was really scary, the amount of water that fell in just a short amount of time and the incredible devastation that it caused,” Healey said, adding she had reached out to the Biden administration, the state's congressional delegation and the Federal Emergency Management Agency for assistance. Dawn Packer, who runs a North Attleborough home preschool, looked across the street Monday evening to see a UPS truck floating in several feet of water. Soon her yard was flooding. “We ran downstairs. It was dry. We were happy about that. I started putting all my child care center stuff up high. All of sudden, the door smashed open. The water was so forceful. It just smashed the door open and poured in, 4 feet,” she said. “The refrigerator just shot up into the air and fell down on its side. It was horrific.” On Tuesday, a generator was rumbling in their backyard as Packer and her husband tallied their losses — as much as $30,000 to $40,000 to fix an electrical system and rebuild her business. “It’s devastating to see,” Packer said, her voice breaking. Nathan Bonneau’s North Attleborough home was condemned Tuesday after a building inspector assessed the flood damage. He said the water rose nearly to his height of 5 feet 10 inches (178 centimeters). “It just kept getting worse,” he said. “I watched the water go from trickling into my garage floor to coming in my front door in a matter of 35 minutes.” Early Tuesday, the city evacuated people who live near the Barrett Park Pond Dam as a precaution. The 15-foot-tall (4.5-meter-tall) earthen structure is listed in poor condition and posing a significant hazard, but would not be expected to cause loss of life, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ National Inventory of Dams. The database shows it was last inspected in November 2017. Some roads in Rhode Island and in Nashua, New Hampshire, were also inundated. In Providence, Rhode Island, downpours flooded a parking lot and parts of a shopping mall. Firefighters used inflatable boats to rescue more than two dozen people stranded in cars. New England has experienced its share of flooding this summer, including a storm that dumped up to two months of rain in two days in Vermont in July, resulting in two deaths. Atmospheric scientists say floods in different parts of the world are fueled by climate change. Mathew Barlow, a climate scientist at the University of Massachusetts-Lowell, said heat spurred by climate change means the air can hold more more water. “As long as fossil fuel emissions continue, this will get worse," he said. “So this won’t be a new normal. This will be a way station on the way to ever more intense systems unless we choose to dramatically decrease emissions.” ___ McCormack reported from Concord, New Hampshire. Associated Press writers Holly Ramer in New Hampshire, Steve LeBlanc and Rodrique Ngowi in Massachusetts, David Sharp in Maine, Lisa Rathke in Vermont, and David Lieb in Missouri contributed to this report. |
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97278
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Hurricane Lee forecast to intensify into possible Category 5 storm
URL: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?start#contents
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Just a note (because I keep an eye on the pacific now).. there is Hurrican Jova west of Mexico. Currently: 155mph sustained winds. Thank goodness this storm is moving WNW (rather than NNW or North into Baja and California again). Another testament to how powerful the storms are this year. "SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 115.7W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES" It's currently going through an eyewall replacement and is a cat 4, and may go to a cat 5 when that's complete is the feeling. It doesn't appear to be a threat to landmasses at this time due to it's directional movement, but I think it's good to note that this monster is off the tip of Baja at all. I guess we need to watch both oceans now with climate changes and El Nino warming the waters off the west. |
97282
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Hurricane Lee forecast to intensify into possible Category 5 storm
URL: https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/know-hurricane-jova-impact-california-18354965.php
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What to know about how Hurricane Jova will impact California By Amy GraffUpdated Sep 8, 2023 12:06 p.m. Approximate path of Hurricane Jova for the next five days as of Sept. 8, 2023. NOAA A hurricane off the coast of Baja California is not on the same track as Hurricane Hilary. Hurricane Jova will never reach land, but the system is already sending big waves to California and could push enough moisture into the Golden State to bring some thunderstorms and light showers on Saturday and Sunday — though the chances are extremely slim. Andrew Orrison, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center, said there’s generally a 10% chance for rain across Central and Southern California on Saturday and Sunday, and a 10% to 20% chance over the Central and Southern Sierra Nevada Range. “With Hurricane Jova, the storm is pulling away from California and it’s going to be weakening over the next couple days,” Orrison said. “It looks like there’s going to be very little moisture getting into California.” Advertisement Article continues below this ad The nine-county San Francisco Bay Area isn’t expected to see rain, but there’s a slight chance of showers just south of the region in Monterey and San Benito counties. The bigger concern with Jova is high surf, and the National Weather Service issued advisories warning of elevated surf and potential impacts at beaches from Big Sur to Southern California. “Right now the chances for any rain is very minimal,” said Rich Thompson, a meteorologist with the weather service’s Los Angeles office, which monitors weather in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura and LA counties. “There’s a non-zero chance for getting some rain, but we’re going to get nothing like we saw with Tropical Storm Hilary. The big issue with the hurricane is the swells we’re going to be getting in, like surf heights of 5 to 8 feet and with that some dangerous rip currents.” The forecast for hurricane Jova as of 8 am PDT. Jova is still a Major Hurricane. Swells from Jova will likely produce elevated surf on Southern California beaches this weekend. #jova #CAwx pic.twitter.com/HRBmId7KZk — NWS San Diego (@NWSSanDiego) September 7, 2023 Advertisement Article continues below this ad Tropical Cyclone Jova formed in the Pacific Ocean off the southwestern coast of Mexico on Monday, and by Wednesday it was a hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center. Early Friday morning, the system was some 1,000 miles off the coast of California’s Point Conception and was weakening as it approached cooler waters and continued to travel away from Southern California, the hurricane center said. The weather service warned of high surf and dangerous rip currents along the Central and Southern California coast Friday and through the weekend due to south swell from Hurricane Jova. “Elevated surf and dangerous rip currents are expected for all beaches, but especially for south-facing beaches,” the weather service’s LA office said. Beach erosion and flooded beach parking lots and pathways are possible, especially at south-facing beaches. The weather service’s Bay Area office also warned of “increased rip current risk and larger breaking waves” along south-facing and steeper sloped beaches along Monterey Bay and the Big Sur coast. Latest surf forecast for the south swell from Hurricane #Jova. Elevated surf and dangerous rip currents are expected for all beaches, but especially for south facing beaches. #CAwx pic.twitter.com/R7vXVi3ydg — NWS Los Angeles (@NWSLosAngeles) September 8, 2023 Advertisement Article continues below this ad Some remnant moisture from Jova is expected to push into Central and Southern California Saturday and Sunday and high clouds could cover parts of the region. “Remnant moisture from Tropical Cyclone Jova will increase clouds and humidity over the weekend with possible showers and thunderstorms over the weekend,” said the weather service’s LA office Friday. “Increasing moisture aloft will mean considerable high cloudiness this weekend, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms over the higher mountains, mainly Saturday afternoon,” the weather service’s San Diego office said in its forecast. Crystal Oudit, a forecaster with the weather service’s Monterey office, said confidence in the rain forecast for Monterey and San Benito counties was very low as of Friday morning. “I think there is a chance for some rain in the mountain areas, right now the chances are slim,” she said. |
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[97292]
97292
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Hurricane Lee forecast to intensify into possible Category 5 storm
URL: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G18&band=EXTENT3&length=12
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I saw a flash last night, went in the house and checked NWS satellite...sure enough, a line of t-storms had pushed in from the coast last night stirred up by Jova out there. The band of t-storms has moved north to about Monterey - east to Fresno now (see link map). Glad this one went out to see rather than turning north toward Calif to see the sites. |
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