An earthquake like Turkey's would devastate
Southern California
Rong-Gong Lin
- Los Angeles Times
An earthquake the size of Turkey’s would bring
devastation, death to Southern California
The destruction from the magnitude 7.8
earthquake that struck Turkey on Monday is so
widespread and intense it is hard to fathom.
But California has experienced quakes of that
magnitude and greater — and scientists have
spent years developing simulations of how “The
Big One” would play out in the Golden State.
Here is a closer look at the risks from the
pages of The Times:
Disruptions from a major quake would be serious
and long-lasting. Here’s what could happen in
Southern California if a large earthquake struck
on the San Andreas fault.
Projecting a huge Southern California quake
A quake as strong as magnitude 8.2 is possible
on the southern San Andreas fault and would
bring disaster to all of Southern California
simultaneously, with the fault rupturing from
near the Mexican border to Monterey County.
Such an earthquake would cause widespread damage
from Palm Springs to San Luis Obispo — and
everything in between, experts say.
In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey and a host
of other state government agencies and academics
published a study called the ShakeOut Scenario
that told the story of what could happen if a
magnitude 7.8 earthquake returned to Southern
California.
A magnitude 7.8 earthquake would be “so powerful
that it causes widespread damage and
consequently affects lives and livelihoods of
all southern Californians. A catastrophe is a
disaster that runs amok when a society is not
prepared for the amount of disruption that
occurs,” the report said.
Among the impacts, the report found:
The death toll could be among the worst for a
natural disaster in U.S. history: nearly 1,800.
Los Angeles County could suffer the highest
death toll, more than 1,000, followed by Orange
County, with more than 350 dead.
Nearly 50,000 could be injured.
Main freeways to Las Vegas and Phoenix that
cross the San Andreas fault would be destroyed.
Some 500,000 to 1 million people could be
displaced from their homes.
Southern California could be isolated for some
time, with the region surrounded by mountains
and earthquake faults.
Major utilities such as gas, power and cell
service would likely be severely compromised.
The milestone comes seven years after the City
Council passed the nation’s most sweeping
earthquake safety legislation, requiring that
more than 14,000 buildings be retrofitted.
What history tells us
The last California seismic event that reached
magnitude 7.8 was the great San Francisco
earthquake of 1906. In Southern California, a
magnitude 7.8 quake struck in 1857. (The
magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake, which
occurred on a much smaller fault in the San
Fernando Valley, was 45 times weaker than the
so-called Ft. Tejon quake.)
The last two big earthquakes to strike Los
Angeles — the 1971 Sylmar quake and 1994
Northridge quake — caused destruction and loss
of life. But the worst damage was concentrated
in relatively small areas and did not halt daily
life across all of Southern California.
Experts have long warned that a significantly
larger quake will eventually strike and that the
toll will be far greater.
When the Big One hits, will Californians be
ready for a lack of modern communication
connections? Extended periods without essential
utilities such as water and gas? Damage to
homes? The mental health effects that often
follow disaster?
Risk in Northern California
The San Andreas fault produced the epic 1906
quake that destroyed San Francisco.
But the Hayward fault in the East Bay also poses
a major threat, experts say.
A landmark report by the U.S. Geological Survey
in 2018 estimates that at least 800 people could
be killed and 18,000 more injured in a magnitude
7 earthquake on the Hayward fault centered below
Oakland.
Hundreds more could die from fire following a
quake along the 52-mile fault. More than 400
fires could ignite, burning the equivalent of
52,000 single-family homes, and a lack of water
for firefighters caused by old pipes shattering
underground could make matters worse,
researchers said.
The Hayward fault is so dangerous because it
runs through some of the most heavily populated
parts of the Bay Area, spanning the length of
the East Bay from the San Pablo Bay through
Berkeley, Oakland, Hayward, Fremont and into
Milpitas.
For all the devastation of the 1906 San
Francisco earthquake, it was centered off the
coast in the Pacific Ocean.
Building strength
In the Turkey quake, thousands of buildings were
reported to have collapsed in a wide area
extending from the Syrian cities of Aleppo and
Hama to Turkey’s Diyarbakir, more than 200 miles
to the northeast. A hospital collapsed in the
Mediterranean coastal city of Iskanderoun,
according to the Associated Press.
Building standards in California are
significantly stronger. Images in Turkey and
Syria show countless toppled buildings.
California has been working to improve seismic
safety rules for vulnerable buildings.
The ShakeOut scenario focused on unretrofitted
brick buildings, brittle concrete buildings and
so-called soft-story apartment buildings. Some
cities including Los Angeles and San Francisco
have been pushing retrofits for these types of
structures.
Soft-story apartments: Last year, L.A. announced
a major milestone: More than 8,000 seismically
vulnerable buildings have been retrofitted
across the city at an estimated cost of $1.3
billion. The improvements mark the biggest
advance in seismic upgrades in decades but still
leave thousands of buildings vulnerable to
damage or even collapse in a catastrophic
temblor.
Cities such as Santa Monica, West Hollywood,
Culver City, Beverly Hills and Pasadena now have
laws requiring soft-story buildings to be
retrofitted. In Northern California, San
Francisco, Berkeley and Oakland have such laws
on the books as well.
In the 1994 Northridge earthquake, about 200
soft-story buildings collapsed, including one
apartment building in which 16 people died.
Brittle concrete: L.A. has made slow progress on
getting brittle concrete buildings retrofitted.
City data show that only two of L.A.'s 1,337
brittle concrete buildings have received
certificates of compliance showing they meet the
standards of the retrofit law.
Owners of concrete buildings were given much
longer to get them retrofitted — 25 years,
compared with the seven years that owners of
soft-story buildings had to upgrade. Some owners
of soft-story buildings began receiving orders
to retrofit in 2016, meaning they still have
some time before the seven-year deadline passes.
Other owners began getting orders in 2017.
Concrete buildings can be especially deadly
because they are so massive. The collapse of two
concrete buildings in a quake in New Zealand in
2011 resulted in 133 deaths.
Brick buildings: Some cities like Los Angeles
long ago required retrofits of un-reinforced
brick buildings.
But a Times analysis in 2018 found that there
were as many as 640 unreinforced masonry
buildings in more than a dozen Inland Empire
cities, including Riverside, Pomona and San
Bernardino, that have been marked as dangerous
but remained unretrofitted despite decades of
warnings.
Little has been done to get those buildings
retrofitted, despite the fact that the San
Andreas fault runs through the region.
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... paramount.
Per the article, "Main freeways to Las
Vegas and Phoenix that
cross the San Andreas fault would be
destroyed".
Not only the roads, but also bridges,
ports, and airplane runways will need
immediate attention.
However, even while that is going on,
rescue workers and heavy duty equipment
within the area needs to be commandeered
from private construction companies (with
compensation quarantined), all for the
purpose of saving lives and clearing
roads.
The people involved in the Twin Towers
tragedy would be an excellent sort of
knowledge.
I'm sure this is just unnecessary
rambling, as already such plans have been
in the works for decades.
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