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96364
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Mauna Loa Eruption - 11/30/2022 update and thoughts..
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At the time of this writing the eruption continues. To help view it HVO has set up a temporary webcam near the most active vent here.. From.. https://www.usgs.gov/media/webcams/m5cam-mauna-loa-fissure-3-eruption-northeast-rift-zone  This camera refreshes once every 10 minutes.. note that HVO does not provide live streaming to the public because their infrastructure is already overwhelmed with other, more important, data streams. This once in a while snap shot is a happy medium between live and nothing at all. Also, in their daily updates HVO published this map, showing vent locations and lava flow lengths as of noon yesterday.. From.. https://www.usgs.gov/maps/november-29-2022-mauna-loa-eruption-map  Other instruments, are showing a continual decline, the summit tilt has flattened out, and the rate of earthquakes have lessened considerably. Below is the continuous trace seismicity for the last 48 hours from the closest station. Note that the number of small earthquakes, as well as the magmatic tremor, have fallen off significantly..  As to my impressions.. This is a much less vigorous eruption than the last one in 1984. The beginning of both events followed the same sequence, with both starting at the volcano’s summit and quickly migrated towards the east with a serious of fissures. The difference between this one and the last is the earlier event had much longer fissures, and produced much higher volumes of lava in their initial stages. But, unlike the ’84 event which quickly migrated down to the 9,000 foot elevation, the current eruption's fissures only propagated down to the 10,000 foot elevation, so far. Does that mean anything? Does that insinuate one scenario over another? I have no idea, but have wondered.. Does a higher elevation vent mean there is less pressure behind the eruption, and less volume available to erupt? And as such does that mean a shorter event? And then, why has this eruption's vents not migrated further? Because of the time between eruptions (38 years) we might assume there's a phenomenal amount of magma built up in the volcano, exerting far more pressure, but is there? There is a line of inquiry, the whole question of whether Mauna Loa and Kilauea, who ultimately share the same source, work independently, or not? And, if they do have a sympathetic relationship, is the last few years of increases at Mauna Loa because of the pause at Kilauea, and the reason Mauna Loa remained inactive is because of Kilauea's activity, and as such the years didn't see as much magma get to Mauna Loa, until Kilauea stopped? If so then maybe the years don't directly correlate to the amount of magma accumulated..? More on the relationship between Mauna Loa and Kilauea's magmatic relationship can be read here.. https://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/~dgeist/Chapman/Gonnermann_Galapagos_Poster.pdf Otherwise, note that the fountains in the webcam above are much smaller, shorter, and not as high, as they were in all the stunning video that circulated on the net in the last day.. As to the island’s infrastructure, the longest flow is going towards the main highway between the west and east sides of the island. At this writing the leading edge is about 2.5 miles from impacting it. But where the lava was advancing over steeper ground at about 1,000 feet an hour yesterday, it has now reached a point in the topography where the land levels out and is expected to slow considerably as it now spreads out as much as it continues to advance. Though if this continues it will eventually sever that highway in the coming days. As it is the access to the Mauna Loa weather station, where a lot of our knowledge about climate change is gathered, has already been severed, and they have lost power, and as such are currently inoperative. And if/when lava gets to the highway it is approaching it will most likely sever access to the Mauna Kea astronomy community as well. If the highway is severed the county has already stated they will close it very close to Hilo on the east side, but leave access to a viewing area on the west. I’ll have more to share as this develops. *It should be noted, most of the inline graphic above are linked from continuously updated sources, and as such the information shown will change over time. |
Responses:
[96366] [96367] [96368] [96369] [96370] [96376] [96377] [96379] [96371]
96366
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mauna Loa Eruption - 11/30/2022 update and thoughts..
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I was sort of contemplating why, after 38 yrs, this seems to be a fairly mild eruption of Mauna Loa (so far)...but it makes perfect sense that, if the two volcanoes have a connected source, that's it's a very good theory that Kilauea has been "stealing the thunder" for some time with all of it's nearly constant activity in these last 40 years letting off the so-called-steam in the system. Great point. |
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[96367] [96368] [96369] [96370] [96376] [96377] [96379] [96371]
96367
From: Eve, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mauna Loa Eruption - 11/30/2022 update and thoughts..
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I was skimming a recently published report on the topic you speak of, though to pass the link along on for any interested. EXCERPT: Article Open Access Published: 18 November 2022 Elastic interaction between Mauna Loa and Kīlauea evidenced by independent component analysis Monika Przeor, Luca D’Auria, Susi Pepe, Pietro Tizzani & Iván Cabrera-Pérez Scientific Reports volume 12, Article number: 19863 (2022) Cite this article 6206 Accesses 7 Altmetric Metricsdetails Abstract The contrasting dynamics between Mauna Loa and Kīlauea have been studied over the last 100 years from multiple viewpoints. The fact that dynamic changes of one volcano trigger a dynamic response of the other volcano indicates a connection may exist. Petrological works show a direct relationship between the magmatic systems of these two volcanoes is not possible. We analysed DInSAR data and GPS measurements of ground deformation patterns associated with the activity of Mauna Loa and Kīlauea volcanoes. The DInSAR SBAS dataset spans the interval between 2003 and 2010, and was acquired along ascending and descending orbits of the ENVISAT (ESA) satellite under different look angles. Of the 10 tracks that cover the Big Island (Hawai‘i), 4 cover both volcanic edifices. Using GPS measurements, we computed the areal strain on 15 triplets of stations for Kīlauea volcano and 11 for Mauna Loa volcano. DInSAR data was analysed by applying Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to decompose the time-varying ground deformation pattern of both volcanoes. The results revealed anticorrelated ground deformation behaviour of the main calderas of Mauna Loa and Kīlauea, meaning that the opposite response is seen in the ground deformation of one volcano with respect to the other. At the same time, Kīlauea exhibits a more complex pattern, with an additional component, which appears not to be correlated with the dynamics of Mauna Loa. The GPS areal strain time series support these findings. To corroborate and help interpret the results, we performed inverse modelling of the observed ground deformation pattern using analytical source models. The results indicate that the ground deformation of Mauna Loa is associated with a dike-shaped source located at 6.2 km depth. In comparison, the anticorrelated ground deformation of Kīlauea is associated with a volumetric source at 1.2 km depth. This excludes a hydraulic connection as a possible mechanism to explain the anticorrelated behaviour; instead, we postulate a stress-transfer mechanism. To support this hypothesis, we performed a 3D numerical modelling of stress and strain fields in the study area, determining the elastic interaction of each source over the others. The most relevant finding is that the Mauna Loa shallow plumbing system can affect the shallowest magmatic reservoir of Kīlauea, while the opposite scenario is unlikely. Conversely, the second independent component observed at Kīlauea is associated to a sill-shaped source located at a depth of 3.5 km, which is less affected by this interaction process. |
Responses:
[96368] [96369] [96370] [96376] [96377] [96379] [96371]
96368
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mauna Loa Eruption - 11/30/2022 update and thoughts..
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Cool..thank you, Eva. There is a relationship---but it's complicated. These volcanoes sound like humans lol. |
96369
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mauna Loa Eruption - 11/30/2022 update and thoughts..
| yah, you never know what hanky-panky is going on under the covers... |
96370
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mauna Loa Eruption - 11/30/2022 update and thoughts..
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The trippy part is the petrology is so different between the two volcanoes.. so it’s assumed that the point of divergence is deep way deep. Some think it is in an invisible, plastic, semi molten zone 50+ miles deep, while others think we’re seeing a shared upwelling at that almost endless seismic swarm just south of Pahala, which is going on at a depth of 20 miles +/-. And that’s deep, for regular ol’ eqs hereabout. Interestingly from there to either edifice is seismically invisible, silent. So try as one might there’s no direct evidence of any of it. And whether or not that deep source of eqs and tremor is exclusive to Kilauea or shared by both. One thing for sure, that place south of Pahala started going nuts after Kilauea broke in 2018. Like omg a lot of magma is coming. Which makes sense in that Kilauea lost a lot of melt during that last big eruption. But then, that’s when Mauna Loa started really inflating as well. I love a good mystery. This one, the whole how do these volcanoes work, has been a wonderful aspect of this lifetime. |
96376
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mauna Loa Eruption - 11/30/2022 update and thoughts..
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Yeah, have also puzzled over the Pahala swarms...that's what keeps life so interesting though, huh? So many questions... Enjoy reading your feedback |
96377
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mauna Loa Eruption - 11/30/2022 update and thoughts..
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It’s way interesting.. I see science, our attempts at understanding our world, as some sort of movement to understand, be closer to, god. It’s like we’re junior creators fumbling around trying to grasp our own selves, to put it all into some kind of 3D model in our minds, hearts, to be a dynamic part of it all. After all, faith alone isn’t life.. there’s so much more than religion has fathomed. But it’s no different, to me, than any other spiritual pursuit. And watching, as close as we can with modern day techniques, the earth is awesome. I get goose bumps looking at an interferogram. Especially when I think back on the first level lines I was a part of. Miles and miles with a level and rod. We worked way hard for so little.. |
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[96379]
96379
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mauna Loa Eruption - 11/30/2022 update and thoughts..
| God's rubix cube. Love it :) |
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None
96371
From: shatterbrain, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mauna Loa Eruption - 11/30/2022 update and thoughts..
| There's still some time taking personal actions....but probably not much. |
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