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96209
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Mauna Loa Update.. 10/28/2022..
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As I said when I ragged on shatterbrain yesterday, Mauna Loa is in a relatively relaxed state at the moment. This is not to say an eruption is no longer potentially imminent, but rather that there is no evidence seen in any of the continuous data streams that we monitor that would suggest it is. What I mean by this is the mountain, which has been filling with fresh magma for years, and decades ago passed the level of full that it was at the last time it erupted, and there is evidence that magma has been accumulated at a very shallow depth, that I reported on earlier, it has since quieted down considerable. As such, in this state, it is within reason to be concerned that an eruption could happen within hours of the onset of the first seismic evidence of renewed activity. But, at the same time, this lull could go on for years. And still, as it is, it’s quiet at the moment. To graphically appreciate this, and put it into some context consider the following data sets.. From an overview, and as most are used to seeing them, here is a map view of Mauna Loa’s summit with all the earthquakes from the last month shown (orange is the last 2 day, yellow the last 2 week, and white 2 - 4 weeks ago)  And here is the same data that is plotted showing depth over time. Note that in the vertical bar on the left 0 is sea level, and negative numbers above are above sea level within the volcano. Time is plotted over 1 month from left to right..  Besides the seismic network Mauna Loa also has a GPS network that is often used to measures changes in distance between stations. In this plot the distance between two points on opposite sides of the summit caldera are watched for indications of inflation / deflation of the shallow summit magma reservoir. Each data point is one day in time. Here is the data set showing the last year of activity..  As you can see there is a lot of noise / variability, but over time we see a general trend of inflation with variations in intensity. Note the steeper rise earlier this moth, which happened during the last seismic swarm, and that it has tapered off since. For a closer, and much more (at a glance) precise reading of changes an array of tilt stations are located on different points on the volcano. A tilt station located outside of the summit, on the sloping flank, measures ground motion and we infer from it's “tilt” the changes in the inflation and deflation in the summit. This can be visualized as a point on the side of an expanding balloon that we’d see changing its ’slope’ as the balloon is filling (inflating) with air.  This is tilt data from a site near the northwest rim of Mauna Loa's summit caldera for the last week. Note that the measurements are so precise that the tiltmeter responds to daily temperature fluctuations as well as possible changes in Mauna Loa's magma storage system. The daily heating and cooling of the mountains rock surface, which we call its diurnal, is seen in this plot as a continuous roller coaster signal which cycles every 24 hours. But, as you can see, when those cycles are removed the summit is relatively flat. ie no changes have occurred over the last week. As we see in all of this the mountain had an increase across all these data sets earlier in the month that has since quieted down. I will post again when warranted.. |
96212
From: shatterbrain, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mauna Loa Update.. 10/28/2022..
URL: Powerful eruptions on the Sun might trigger earthquakes
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Cyclical patterns in nature are always interesting. Seismic episodes have a tendency to repeat themselves every seven days. The recent 5.1 SF quake occured last Tuesday the 25th. So I'm expecting a significant aftershock .....or possibly even something else at or around this upcoming Halloween. The current activity in Hawaii is worth watching as it has a direct connection or 'hand shake' to the west coast which of course includes California. The Big island might even be considered as a 'remote trigger ' for seismicity. The ongoing solar storm eruptions can trigger core shocks around the ROF plates as well. The next few days will tell the story. |
96221
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mauna Loa.. a Slight Update 11/01/2022..
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The next few days will tell the story.. Heynow, shatterbrain, since I shared a detailed look at the tilt yesterday, and there is some mention of an increase in the number of small earthquakes in our local press this morning that don’t appear on the ‘picked' eqs that show up on the USGS public plots, I thought it’d be cool to add the seismic trace to the discussion. So, here is the last 48 hour view, covering that same period over the weekend, of the record from a seismometer right next to the tilt meter...  As I pointed out with the tilt, as far as the surface of the volcano goes there has been no discernible change in the deformation, but that is not to say there has been no vibratory evidence of movement within. So here’s that piece of the puzzle in which besides the small quakes throughout you can see a flurry of activity for 7 or 8 hours early Sunday morning, that might coincide with the events you’re tracking? Anyways.. since you’re looking for clues.. |
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96220
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mauna Loa, a small Update.. 10/31/2022
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Ok.. we went through the weekend and I see nothing.. absolutely nothing in the way of an outside influence effecting the behavior of Mauna Loa. In fact.. she is as flat as a board. I mean this volcano is quiet. So I'm wondering, shatterbrain, how are the things that led you to suggest this weekend had the potential to be more doing? As to Mauna Loa.. here’s as flat of a single as it gets..  This plot.. from a tilt station located on the Northwest side of Mauna Loa's summit caldera, shows no movement at all other than the daily diurnal for the last week. Literally no change other than the heating and cooling which causes expansion and contraction of the ground the instrument is installed in. Note that the tilt instrument’s record as shown here is showing two axis of change, as such the blue and the green lines show changes along two different planes from the same point. More about tilt instruments can be read here. For those not familiar with these tilt plots note that the instrument is amazingly precise. It is measuring the changes in tilt by microradians (as seen in the vertical bar on the left). A microradian can be visualized by imagining a protractor that has a radius of one kilometer, and the change in arc that would happen if the measured slope changed by the thickness of one dime at one end of that kilometer. The diurnal, as seen in the plot, is between one half and three quarters of one microradian. Practically nothing. I point this out because if there was change, tidal, solar, incoming magma, rain.. it’s seen, and recorded. So.. I am curious.. did you see anything on your end and, if so, how does what you see superimpose over this? Btw.. I’ve seen dozens, hundreds, of efforts to find outside influences, patterns, in the changes with the active volcanoes in Hawaii. I know of one researcher that tried to tie space shuttle launches to volcanic changes, another that was hoping to infer tidal changes in the plastic parts of the mantle. And a whole lot of efforts made to find lunar influences, though I don’t remember anyone going on about solar. And, btw, one of the world’s premier solar observatories is here, high up, about 11,000 feet, on the slope of Mauna Loa. So they would know if any one does. But man, you never know. Maybe someday someone will unlock the golden grail, the unifying theory that models all of it as a single whole.. as one. |
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