Date: January 03, 2022 at 09:56:48 From: ao, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: Iceland Volcano Update..
That's an interesting way to package what's happening.. I suppose.. for those not following the actual data. Aren't you following the data Wubbo? Why not post your own commentary.. links to the data sets themselves etc..?
But yeah good pics.. thanks for those..
The one thing your commentator forgot to highlight is the earthquake swarm now occurring is, albeit similar in it's pattern to last years onset of the Fagradalsfjall eruption, according to Þorvaldur Þórðarson, a professor of volcanology and petrology at the University of Iceland, it is a good 10 times weaker..
“If you look at the pattern of seismic activity, it’s very similar to that which happened before the March 19th eruption last year. Both in the number of quakes and the power being released due to the quakes. But it’s a lot less; it’s maybe a tenth of what we saw earlier this year. So this is all just a bit calmer.”
And further it state..
“Last time, the more powerful quakes decreased, and then eruption came rather quickly to the surface. We can expect the same thing happens now, or see all new behavior.”
Another specialist with the Icelandic Met Office (Iceland's Volcano Observatory), gave a similar assessment, saying, it is impossible to say anything definitive on how likely an eruption will be...
“It is so difficult to say,” she said. “This is a profession that requires incredible caution in predictions. There is so much that plays into this that can have an effect and is unknown. It’s all under the surface, we don’t see it.”
Date: January 03, 2022 at 11:42:44 From: Wubbo, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: Iceland Volcano Update..
I'm glad you liked the footage :-)
probably a "calmer" eruption. From what i learned a few days ago, the consensus was that it could erupt within days. Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson , considered the leading volcanologist in Iceland, also talked about days.
The event everyone is talking about, and speculating on what it bodes for the future, may well have ended.. and all we are doing is passing around yesterday's fodder..
Try look at it through the eyes of the GPS network in the area.. the link above should give you all of that at a glance.. where you can see rapid changes between Dec 21 and 28 but since things are relatively stable..
You can also poke around all the seismic drums in the area from here..
Although, unfortunately, they don't give a lot of history.. but rather are just a snapshot of what currently is happening. Even so, I find the kri station to be a good reference for the recent eruption site. The direct link to that is..
Where although they continue, and some events are shallower than the average to date, you'll see them to be, overall, diminishing in magnitude.
And, of course, without an increase in tremor it's hard to think anything is imminent. And do keep in mind, seismic stations are often influenced by the local environmental conditions, and in Iceland there are many, like wind, that have to be taken into consideration when interpreting their signals when looking for evidence of magma's movement.
If you want to get a little more into it try playing with this 3D model...
It takes a bit of getting used to but when you do you will find you are able to visualize all the earthquakes in Iceland in a 3D space with each event being shown in time with color and magnitude via size.. it's way cool methinks. But it's in beta, and has no obvious controls, so you have to dive in with your intuition..
Date: January 04, 2022 at 09:40:44 From: Wubbo, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: Iceland Volcano Update..
Thx , i appreciate your input
I didn't had the 3d model, will check that out later
I read many of the quakes occurred at depths of less than 1 km. This indicates that the magma has continued to rise. The scientists stay on the ball and keep a close eye on the area.
But maybe we need another magma surge. I'm kinda hoping this will be go-time though! :-)
Date: January 04, 2022 at 11:06:16 From: ao, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: Iceland Volcano Update..
"the 3d model, will check that out later"
Yes, check the model, I think it will help you see what is actually happening.. How the energy driving the event has dissipated and the shallow events are extremely small, and not directly associated with an advance toward the surface of an intruding pulse of magma.
All that is not to say there isn't the possibility of an advance.. just that at the moment there isn't any evidence of such.
Why your sources would suggest otherwise is a wonder..
Responses:
None
95578
Date: January 04, 2022 at 09:58:51 From: Wubbo, [DNS_Address] Subject: - correction -
i meant to say:
"I read many of the quakes over the last 48 hrs occurred at depths of less than 1 km."